Convective Capital Research
Investment Thesis
Convective Capital is a San Francisco specialist venture firm that invests in "systems that keep the world running." Its stated mission is to connect capital, people and technology to protect communities from disasters. The firm began in 2022 as a wildfire ("firetech") specialist and, with Fund II, widened its mandate to all-hazard disaster resilience: hardware, software and financial services that manage risk in the physical world. The core argument is that the United States now suffers a billion-dollar disaster roughly once every 18 days, that disasters cost over $1 trillion a year, and that utilities, insurers, governments and asset owners are now so stressed that they will buy from startups. Convective deliberately backs sectors that look slow, regulated or operationally complex, where most investors shy away.
Stage Focus
Fund II invests across pre-seed, seed and Series A. Fund I ($35M, 2022) was pre-seed and seed only. The firm says it is writing bigger checks in Fund II than in Fund I. Follow-on participation is visible in later rounds of Fund I companies such as Overstory.
Check Size
No explicit check-size range is published. Fund II is $85M for roughly 18 investments, which implies initial checks in the low single-digit millions with follow-on reserves. This is an inference, not a stated figure, so no check-size fields are submitted.
Lead Tendency
The firm leads and co-leads early rounds. Most recently it led Molagri's $5.8M seed (October 2026) alongside Robinhood Ventures, Superorganism, Y Combinator and Paul Graham. Convective describes itself as an investor of choice for founders working in resilience markets.
Recent Activity
- Fund II, $85M, announced May 2026, largely backed by institutions including two insurance companies, a pension fund, several foundations, and LPs such as the Arbor Day Foundation, John and Patrick Collison, Pathstone, StepStone Group and WovenEarth Ventures.
- The first four Fund II investments were The Lumber Manufactory, Drafted, Voltair and Edge.
- October 2026: led the $5.8M seed round of Molagri (YC S26), an updatable biopesticide company.
- The fund is in active deployment, with about 18 investments planned.
Portfolio Highlights
The portfolio page lists 21 companies grouped by category (Hardtech, AI & Software, Risk Transfer & Financial Services) and by function (Intelligence, Intervention, Transfer). Highlights include Pano (AI wildfire detection cameras), Burnbot (robotic fuels management), Rain (autonomous firefighting helicopters), Seneca (firefighting drones), Stand and Delos (insurance for high-risk homes), Gridware (grid monitoring), Overstory and Treeswift (vegetation risk for utilities), Windborne (weather balloons), Hubble Network (global Bluetooth connectivity), Piq Energy (grid interconnection) and Rhizome (climate risk for the grid). Per TechCrunch, Fund I portfolio companies have earned about $100M of revenue, carry a combined value of about $2B, and 79% have graduated from seed to Series A.
Team
- Bill Clerico, Founder and Managing Partner: co-founder and CEO of WePay (acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase in 2017), angel investor in 60+ startups, former part-time partner at Y Combinator, volunteer rural firefighter.
- Kat Mañalac, Partner: leads platform and community; more than a decade as a partner at Y Combinator.
- Mike Trapanese, Partner: operations and strategic capital; private equity and operating background.
- Jay Ribakove, Principal: joined in 2024; previously an investor at Munich Re Ventures.
- Amy Brown, Director of Operations.
Decision Process
A small partnership of three partners and a principal. No formal committee process is published; decisions appear to be partner-led, with Clerico as the founding managing partner.
Founder Preferences
Operator-minded founders who are bold enough to sell into utilities, insurers, fire departments and government agencies. The firm says it values founders who move fast, because the risks are accelerating, and it prizes relationships measured in years. It expects founders to sell to hard customers, and it helps with that through Updraft.
Platform and Network
Updraft is Convective's network of 10,000+ utility executives, agency leaders, insurers, operators and frontline responders. It has generated over $100M in revenue for portfolio companies. The firm also runs the Red Sky Summit (its flagship annual gathering in San Francisco), the Disasterproof podcast and video series, and the Field Notes Substack. Partners spend time in the field with fire crews and products.
Geographic Focus
US-centric, with a heavy San Francisco and California presence, because customers and wildfire risk concentrate there. The portfolio includes a few non-US companies (for example Molagri, which is Canadian), but no geographic restriction is stated.