Deviation Capital

Deviation Capital Research

Investment Thesis

Deviation Capital is an early-stage venture capital firm that officially launched in May 2026 as the spin-out of Two Sigma Ventures (TSV), the venture arm of quantitative investment firm Two Sigma. The firm was co-founded by Colin Beirne (who founded TSV in 2012 on Pi Day), Dusan Perovic, Sidney Costabile, and Jonathan Golden (formerly a Partner at NEA).

The firm's core investment philosophy is built around what it calls its "metathesis" — a multi-decade perspective on technology's evolution developed over nearly 15 years at Two Sigma Ventures. The metathesis holds that era-defining companies are built by harnessing the increasing volume of data and our improving ability to collect and analyze it through advances in computing, hardware, and software. As these capabilities advance, entirely new problems become solvable and new dreams achievable.

This worldview traces the arc of transformative technology waves: the early internet created exponential amounts of data and connectivity; the cloud made it possible to store and process that data at scale; mobile put information into the hands of billions; and now advances in AI present the most powerful opportunity yet to turn data into novel insights for businesses, magical consumer experiences, and breakthrough scientific discoveries.

Deviation seeks to back founders who are building at the frontier of this data-and-computing convergence — "enduring exceptions" that defy conventional wisdom as they rise to become category-defining companies. The firm's name reflects its belief: the future is built by those who deviate.

Sector Focus

Deviation's portfolio is organized around four verticals, each led by a founding partner:

• Applied AI & AI-Native Software (Jonathan Golden): AI applications for B2B software, API infrastructure, and verticalized AI
• Techbio & Life Sciences (Dusan Perovic): Companies at the intersection of life science, healthcare, and data science
• Robotics, Industrials & Deep Tech (Colin Beirne): Manufacturing, robotics, insurance tech, consumer hardware
• Fintech & Capital Markets (Sidney Costabile): Fintech applications and infrastructure

The firm also covers supply chain & logistics, cybersecurity, and developer tools/AI infrastructure.

Stage Focus

Deviation invests exclusively at Seed and Series A. The firm aims to be an early conviction partner — meeting founders at the fringes, before others can see a path forward. They seek to write the first institutional check for companies breaking conventional wisdom.

Check Size

Deviation has not publicly disclosed specific check size ranges. Based on the firm's Seed/Series A focus and the $300M target for Deviation V (their first core fund under the new independent structure), typical initial checks are estimated in the $3M–$15M range. Field confidence is low as no specific figures have been disclosed publicly.

Lead Tendency

Deviation leads rounds. The firm led Osmo's most recent funding round (led by Two Sigma Ventures, now managed under Deviation) and as a $2B AUM firm with high conviction and dedicated partner oversight per vertical, they are positioned to anchor Seed and Series A rounds.

Recent Activity

Deviation Capital launched officially on May 4, 2026, spinning out from Two Sigma with approximately $2B in AUM and an active portfolio of 79 companies. The firm is simultaneously fundraising Deviation V, targeting $300M, representing their first standalone fund under the new independent structure.

Recent portfolio milestones demonstrate the portfolio's momentum:

• March 2026: WHOOP valuation tripled to $10B in a Series G financing
• February 2026: Freeform raised $67M Series B for AI-native metal manufacturing
• February 2026: Bedrock Robotics raised $270M to scale AI-powered autonomous construction equipment
• February 2026: Osmo raised $70M for its AI olfactory intelligence platform (total raised: $130M)
• December 2025: Kalshi raised $1B as the first regulated prediction market exchange
• September 2025: Highbeam raised $30M to help consumer brands manage cash flow

The firm also maintains a Technical Expert Council (TEC) of seven senior Two Sigma leaders, providing support for sourcing, diligence, and portfolio advising, plus access to Two Sigma's broader community of 1,300+ employees including 200+ PhDs.

Portfolio Highlights

Notable companies in the Deviation portfolio include:

• WHOOP: Leading biometric wearable platform; valuation reached $10B in March 2026
• Etched: Full-stack frontier inference systems delivering order-of-magnitude better performance than GPUs at a fraction of the cost
• Remote: Global all-in-one HR and payroll platform for international teams
• Kalshi: First regulated prediction market exchange in the US; raised $1B in December 2025
• Recursion: AI drug discovery company (NYSE: RXRX), publicly traded
• Insitro: ML-driven drug discovery platform
• Xaira: AI-powered drug discovery and design
• Gameto: Next-generation cell therapies for women's reproductive health
• Terray Therapeutics: Small-molecule drug discovery at the intersection of proprietary data and advanced AI
• Bedrock Robotics: Transforming existing heavy machinery into self-operating equipment for construction
• Freeform: AI-native metal manufacturing system using autonomous factories
• Osmo: AI olfactory intelligence platform; giving computers a sense of smell
• Zeromatter: Simulation infrastructure for robotics and autonomy teams
• Wealthsimple: Leading Canadian fintech and investing platform
• Socure: Digital identity verification using AI
• Steadily: Landlord insurance platform
• CoverWallet: Digital business insurance marketplace
• Bark Technologies: Child online safety monitoring platform
• Rive: Design and animation tool for real-time interactive experiences
• Cerby: Security platform for non-standard SaaS applications
• Distributional: AI testing and evaluation infrastructure

Team

• Colin Beirne, Founding Partner (New York): Founded Two Sigma Ventures in 2012. Seven prior years at Two Sigma shaping business strategy. Focus areas: manufacturing/industrials, robotics, insurance tech, consumer. Previously a technology investment banker and corporate strategist. BA in Economics and Law, Jurisprudence, and Social Thought from Amherst College. Select investments: WHOOP, Etched, Steadily, Bedrock Robotics, Osmo, Socure.

• Jonathan Golden, Founding Partner (San Francisco): Previously a Partner at NEA for six years, leading early-stage investments in B2B software, API infrastructure, and verticalized AI. Before venture, spent six years at Airbnb as its first Product Manager, joining in 2011 when Airbnb had eight engineers, eventually serving as Director of Product. Also held product roles at HubSpot and Dropbox; earlier investments at Greylock Partners; started career at Goldman Sachs. MBA from Stanford GSB; BA from University of Michigan. Focus areas: applied AI, AI-native software, fintech. Key Deviation investment: Kalshi.

• Dusan Perovic, Founding Partner (New York): Over 10 years at Two Sigma Ventures focused on life science, healthcare, and data science intersections. Earlier at Two Sigma working on company growth strategy and data source evaluation. Started career in healthcare management consulting. BSE in Electrical Engineering from Princeton University with minors in German literature and Dance. Focus areas: techbio, AI for science, data in healthcare. Select investments: Recursion, Xaira, Gameto, Terray Therapeutics, Insitro, Kallyope.

• Sidney Costabile, Founding Partner (New York): Led investor relations and business development at Two Sigma Ventures as Partner. Previously a Partner at Artist Capital Management (global growth-oriented investment firm) and Venture Partner at Richmond Global Ventures (early-stage international VC). Fintech operator and founder background. AB in Classical Chinese Literature from Dartmouth College. Focus areas: capital markets.

• Joe Botsch, Principal (New York): Previously investor at Two Sigma Ventures focusing on early-stage AI/ML, infrastructure, security, and vertical software. Earlier spent years as PM and data scientist at early-stage startups in Boston. Helped run MassChallenge accelerator. Venture roles at RTP Global and OpenView. BS in Computer Science from Brandeis University. Focus areas: AI infra, supply chain & logistics, robotics, DevTools. Select investments: Artemis, Highbeam, Swarm Aero.

• Elianna Knight, Investor: Focus on next-gen therapeutics, health informatics, and computational genomics.

• Rohit Rao, Investor: Focus on applied AI, supply chain & logistics, and robotics.

• Matthieu Schulz, Investor (San Francisco): Previously at Cognition, where he was the third product hire at Windsurf, shaping the product through its breakout growth and subsequent acquisition. Focus areas: AI infra, applied AI, SaaS, DevTools.

Decision Process

Deviation uses a partnership model with each founding partner owning specific verticals. As a lead-stage investor at Seed and Series A, they typically take board seats or observer positions. The four-partner structure suggests collective investment decisions with vertical domain ownership.

Founder Preferences

Deviation is explicit about their founder preferences: they back technical founders using data and computing to build enduring exceptions. They describe themselves as meeting founders at the fringes before others can see a path forward, and seek founders with genuine technical insight rather than those chasing hype.

Key founder signals:

• Technical founding team with deep data or computing advantage
• Early-stage (Seed or Series A)
• Breakthrough approach that challenges conventional wisdom
• Perseverance and a clear north star

Anti-thesis signals:

• Non-technical founding teams
• Late-stage or growth-stage deals
• Consumer-only plays without data/computing edge
• Hype-driven rather than conviction-driven products

Geographic Focus

Deviation is headquartered in New York with a second office in San Francisco. The portfolio is primarily US-based, though it includes international companies (Wealthsimple in Canada; Remote serving teams globally). The firm plans to continue building out its SF investing team.

Connection to Two Sigma

Even as an independent firm, Deviation maintains collaboration with Two Sigma through its Technical Expert Council (TEC) — seven senior Two Sigma leaders who provide support across sourcing, diligencing, and advising the portfolio. This provides access to Two Sigma's broader community of 1,300+ employees including 200+ PhDs — a differentiated resource for deep technical diligence unavailable at most early-stage funds.