Conviction

Conviction Partners Research

Investment Thesis

Conviction Partners is a venture capital firm purpose-built to serve AI-Native "Software 3.0" companies. Founded in 2022 by Sarah Guo (formerly GP at Greylock Partners), Conviction believes we are extremely early in the translation of powerful AI models into powerful products that transform entire industries. The firm partners with the most important AI companies of tomorrow, providing checks ranging from $1M to $25M, with a focus on being early investors—often the first institutional capital a company receives.

The firm's core thesis centers on recognizing that the pace of AI change will exceed the capabilities of large enterprises. Big companies struggle with non-deterministic AI systems, have slow decision cycles, and must worry about quarterly results. In contrast, startups have the speed and "unruliness" required to build transformative AI-native companies. Conviction believes we are at a cosmic inflection point where the advantages have tipped decisively toward startups.

Stage Focus

Conviction primarily invests at the Pre-Seed and Seed stages:

• Pre-Seed: Early-stage founders with strong technical credentials
• Seed: Companies with initial product-market signals and customer traction
• Series A: Selective follow-ons for portfolio companies showing exceptional growth

The firm is intentionally small and early-stage focused because they want to be "beloved partners" to founders rather than simply deploying capital. Leadership explicitly states they take no cash compensation at Conviction.

Check Size

Typical investment range: $1M - $25M

• Seed investments: $1M - $5M
• Series A follow-ons: $5M - $25M
• Emphasis on being the first or early institutional investor

Investment Activity

Recent Fund Raise (Jan 2025):

• Conviction Partners Fund II closed with $230M in capital commitments, more than doubling the initial $101M fund
• Mike Vernal added as General Partner alongside founders Sarah Guo, Pranav Reddy, and Bella Garcia-Camargo
• Fund II is actively deploying as of January 2026

Recent Investments:

• November 2025: Wabi (Series funding, Software Development Applications)
• January 2026: Listen Labs (Series B investment)
• Portfolio has made 35 total investments with 21 new companies added in the last 12 months

Portfolio Highlights

Conviction has backed 35+ companies across AI infrastructure, AI applications, and software infrastructure. Key portfolio companies include:

AI Infrastructure & Models:

• Mistral (LLM company, unicorn status)
• Baseten (AI infrastructure platform)
• Cartesia (AI voice/audio infrastructure)

AI Applications:

• Cognition (AI coding/software development agent)
• Harvey (AI legal software)
• Essential (LLM-powered productivity)
• Sierra (Enterprise AI customer service)
• HeyGen (AI video generation)
• Sola (AI solutions)

Software Infrastructure:

• Corridor (Software security/infrastructure)
• Culminate (Security platform)
• Distributed Spectrum (Network infrastructure)
• Listen Labs (AI audio)
• Open Evidence (Data analysis/evidence)
• RunSybil (Developer tools)
• Latent (Healthcare AI)
• Mithril (AI systems)
• Sunday (AI-powered platform)

Company Results:

• 6 portfolio unicorns achieved
• 2+ notable acquisitions
• Portfolio valued at billions across multiple billion-dollar companies

Team

Sarah Guo (Founder & Managing Partner)

• Former General Partner at Greylock Partners (2018-2022), youngest GP in Greylock history
• Technology investor specializing in early-stage AI and developer tools
• Previously at Goldman Sachs in banking and growth investing (advised Dropbox, Netflix, Nvidia, Workday, Zynga)
• Wharton School education
• Twitter: @saranormous

Mike Vernal (General Partner)

• Joined as GP in January 2025
• Significant experience in venture and technology leadership

Pranav Reddy (Partner)

• Core investing partner at Conviction
• Twitter: @prnvrdy

Bella Garcia-Camargo (Partner)

• Core investing partner at Conviction
• Twitter: @igarciacamargo

Supporting Team:

• Niki Nguyen (Talent/Recruiting)
• Vivian Nguyen (Talent/Recruiting)
• Christy Hogue (EA/Operations)
• Cami Brunjes (Executive Assistant)

Geographic Focus

Primary focus: United States (SF Bay Area, NYC tech centers) Global reach: International portfolio companies including European and international founders

Decision Process

Solo GP to Partnership Evolution: Conviction evolved from Sarah Guo as sole founder/GP to a partnership model with Mike Vernal joining as General Partner in January 2025. The partnership approach suggests collaborative investment decision-making while maintaining a lean operational structure.

Decision Timeline: Not explicitly stated, but the emphasis on being "hands-on" and maintaining deep relationships suggests decisions are made relatively quickly for early-stage companies.

Warm Introduction Requirements

While not explicitly required, Conviction emphasizes:

• Hands-on relationships with founders
• Deep domain understanding of both AI and the specific domain of portfolio companies
• Technical expertise and credibility in the AI space
• Strong networks within AI researcher and builder communities

Lead Tendency

Leads: Conviction positions itself as an early investor and often "the first investor" in companies, suggesting a lead tendency in seed/pre-seed rounds.

Portfolio Company Characteristics

Conviction gravitates toward:

• Technical founders: Engineers, researchers, product folks, domain experts, and exceptional dropouts
• Velocity and pragmatism: Teams that build quickly and pragmatically
• AI expertise: Deep understanding of AI models, infrastructure, and applications
• Ambition: Founders building world-changing technology to transform entire industries
• Speed: Teams that move fast and can adapt to rapid AI changes

Notable Programs & Initiatives

Embed: An experimental grant program and accelerator for early-stage AI founders providing:

• Access to talent matching and recruiting
• Customer introductions and market credibility
• Advice frameworks and mentorship from legendary founders
• Capital ($1-$10M no-brainer terms)
• Compute resources (H100 GPU access at cost)
• Community of peer founders
• Weekly dinners for accountability and peer learning

Mixture of Experts: Recruiting event helping people join breakout startups early

No Priors Podcast: Platform with AI researchers and builders

Commit: Fellowship program for early-career AI builders

Jobs: Portal for joining portfolio companies

Founder Preferences

Conviction seeks:

• Smart, enthusiastic founders with depth
• Founders who move fast
• Technical co-founder teams (researchers, engineers, product leaders)
• Founders with domain expertise in their sectors
• Ambitious founders building to "transform industries"
• Open-minded founders who understand AI technology deeply
• Founders comfortable with non-determinism in AI systems

Geographic Markets

Primary: United States (SF Bay Area, NYC) Secondary: Europe, with some international investments

Market Outlook & Conviction Perspective

The firm believes:

• We are "extremely early" in AI-to-products translation
• Traditional software market comparisons underestimate AI opportunity (should compare to human work being done instead)
• Founders can build product that "changes people's daily lives" in weeks using modern AI models
• AI has made the startup environment more favorable than ever before for speed-focused teams
• The pace of AI change exceeds what large enterprises can handle
• Non-determinism in AI is a fundamental challenge that requires startup-level adaptability

Sector Classification

Primary Focus: AI-Native companies and Software 3.0

• AI Infrastructure (models, inference, training, vectors)
• AI Applications (productivity, code, healthcare, legal, creative)
• Software Infrastructure (enabling AI companies)
• Deep Tech (cybersecurity, robotics, etc.)

Stage: Pre-Seed to Series A, with selective later-stage follow-ons

Market Opportunity: Founders encouraged to think at the scale of "entire industries" and "human work replacement"